Riding profile
Nouvelle-Calédonie — 1ere circonscription
The question
Nouvelle-Calédonie — 1ere circonscription: a safe seat for the LR right?
Editorial read
Nouvelle-Calédonie — 1ere circonscription, a mixed riding in Nouvelle-Calédonie, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 41% vote share, against 41% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Nicolas METZDORF
Sits with LR and allies
Current forecast
LR and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 94%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 0.0
- P(close race)
- 11%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Others | LR and allies | RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNouvelle-Calédonie — 1ere circonscription | 41.3% | 41.3% | 7.9% | 5.4% |
| Provincial averageNouvelle-Calédonie | 44.8% −3.5 | 39.2% +2.0 | 5.5% +2.4 | 2.9% +2.5 |
| National averageFrance | 3.9% +37.4 | 12.2% +29.0 | 36.0% −28.1 | 20.6% −15.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas METZDORF Elected | LR and allies | 22,316 | 39.8 | — |
| Omayra Lisa Meun NAISSELINE | Others | 20,370 | 36.3 | — |
| Philippe DUNOYER | Centre (Ensemble) | 5,791 | 10.3 | — |
| Veylma FALAEO | Left (NFP) | 2,731 | 4.9 | — |
| Simon LOUECKHOTE | RN and allies | 2,562 | 4.6 | — |
| Muneiko HAOCAS | Others | 1,229 | 2.2 | — |
| Juanita Ciane ANGEXETINE ÉP RAILATI | Others | 344 | 0.6 | — |
| Cédric DEVAUD | Greens | 235 | 0.4 | — |
| Pierre-Henri CUENOT | LR and allies | 173 | 0.3 | — |
| Thomas NASRI | RN and allies | 158 | 0.3 | — |
| Germaine Toléta NEMIA ÉP BISHOP | Others | 78 | 0.1 | — |
| Manuel MILLAR | Others | 63 | 0.1 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Nouvelle-Calédonie — 2ème circonscriptionOthers Safe seatOpen →
- La Réunion — 5ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- La Réunion — 4ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) CompetitiveOpen →
- La Réunion — 6ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- La Réunion — 3ème circonscriptionLR and allies CompetitiveOpen →
- La Réunion — 1ère circonscriptionLeft (NFP) CompetitiveOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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