Riding profile
Nouvelle-Calédonie — 2ème circonscription
The question
Nouvelle-Calédonie — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for another bloc?
Editorial read
Nouvelle-Calédonie — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Nouvelle-Calédonie, elected a member with another bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects another bloc ahead at 48% vote share, against 37% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Emmanuel TJIBAOU
Sits with Others
Current forecast
Others
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Others | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | RN and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNouvelle-Calédonie — 2ème circonscription | 48.3% | 37.2% | 11.1% | 3.0% |
| Provincial averageNouvelle-Calédonie | 44.8% +3.5 | 39.2% −2.0 | 7.6% +3.5 | 5.5% −2.4 |
| National averageFrance | 3.9% +44.4 | 12.2% +25.0 | 29.5% −18.4 | 36.0% −32.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel TJIBAOU Elected | Others | 32,926 | 44.1 | — |
| Alcide PONGA | LR and allies | 27,038 | 36.2 | — |
| Milakulo TUKUMULI | Left (NFP) | 8,906 | 11.9 | — |
| Gérard POADJA | Centre (Ensemble) | 3,946 | 5.3 | — |
| Luther VOUDJO | Others | 1,114 | 1.5 | — |
| Ronald FRERE | Others | 808 | 1.1 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Nouvelle-Calédonie — 1ere circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- La Réunion — 5ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- La Réunion — 4ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) CompetitiveOpen →
- La Réunion — 6ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- La Réunion — 3ème circonscriptionLR and allies CompetitiveOpen →
- La Réunion — 1ère circonscriptionLeft (NFP) CompetitiveOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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