France · 2027 presidential poll

Elabe — July 10, 2026

Fieldwork: July 9, 2026 → July 10, 2026
Sample: 1,503 respondents
Published: July 10, 2026
Pollster release: Pollster release

First round, voting intention

Marine Le Pen 34%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 14.5%
Gabriel Attal 13.5%
Raphaël Glucksmann 11.5%
Bruno Retailleau 11%
Marine Tondelier 3.5%
Dominique de Villepin 3.5%
Éric Zemmour 3.5%
Fabien Roussel 2.5%
Nathalie Arthaud 1.5%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.5%

Our reading of this poll

House effect: on the same lineups, Elabe usually puts Mélenchon 2.3 pts lower, Glucksmann 1.7 pt higher and Le Pen 1 pt higher than other pollsters (16 comparisons within 60 days). Not an error: each pollster has its method, and our average accounts for it.

Where each candidacy takes its votes from: the candidacy effect

This poll tested 6 candidate line-ups

French pollsters test several hypothetical fields in the same survey. Each one is shown below — the pollster’s own release rarely puts them side by side.

Line-up 1 · with Attal, Glucksmann, Tondelier, Villepin

Marine Le Pen34%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon14.5%
Gabriel Attal13.5%
Raphaël Glucksmann11.5%
Bruno Retailleau11%
Marine Tondelier3.5%
Dominique de Villepin3.5%
Éric Zemmour3.5%
Fabien Roussel2.5%
Nathalie Arthaud1.5%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan1.5%

Line-up 2 · with Philippe, Glucksmann, Attal, Tondelier

Marine Le Pen35%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon14.5%
Édouard Philippe14%
Raphaël Glucksmann8.5%
Bruno Retailleau8.5%
Gabriel Attal7.5%
Marine Tondelier4%
Éric Zemmour3%
Fabien Roussel2.5%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan1.5%
Nathalie Arthaud1%

Line-up 3 · with Philippe, Glucksmann, Tondelier, Villepin

Marine Le Pen35%
Édouard Philippe16.5%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon16%
Raphaël Glucksmann10.5%
Bruno Retailleau8%
Marine Tondelier3.5%
Éric Zemmour3%
Fabien Roussel2.5%
Dominique de Villepin2.5%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan1.5%
Nathalie Arthaud1%

Line-up 4 · with Philippe, Hollande, Tondelier, Villepin

Marine Le Pen34.5%
Édouard Philippe18%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon15%
François Hollande8%
Bruno Retailleau8%
Marine Tondelier4%
Fabien Roussel3%
Dominique de Villepin3%
Éric Zemmour3%
Nathalie Arthaud2%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan1.5%

Line-up 5 · with Attal, Hollande, Ruffin

Marine Le Pen35.5%
Gabriel Attal15.5%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon15%
Bruno Retailleau11%
François Hollande8%
François Ruffin6%
Éric Zemmour3.5%
Fabien Roussel2.5%
Nathalie Arthaud1.5%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan1.5%

Line-up 6 · with Philippe, Hollande, Ruffin

Marine Le Pen35%
Édouard Philippe19%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon14.5%
François Hollande9%
Bruno Retailleau9%
François Ruffin6%
Fabien Roussel2.5%
Éric Zemmour2.5%
Nathalie Arthaud1.5%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan1.5%

A single poll is one measurement with its own margin of error. Our model weights every published poll, corrects for house effects and projects the range of plausible outcomes.

Our weighted average and projection All 2027 presidential polls

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