France · 2027 presidential poll

IFOP — May 20, 2025

Fieldwork: May 19, 2025 → May 20, 2025
Sample: 1,114 respondents
Published: May 20, 2025
Pollster release: Pollster release

First round, voting intention

Jordan Bardella 31%
Édouard Philippe 21%
Bruno Retailleau 16%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 13%
Olivier Faure 4.5%
Marine Tondelier 4.5%
Fabien Roussel 3.5%
Éric Zemmour 3.5%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 2%
Nathalie Arthaud 1%

Our reading of this poll

House effect: on the same lineups, IFOP usually puts Philippe 1.1 pt higher than other pollsters (22 comparisons within 60 days). Not an error: each pollster has its method, and our average accounts for it.

Where each candidacy takes its votes from: the candidacy effect

This poll tested 2 candidate line-ups

French pollsters test several hypothetical fields in the same survey. Each one is shown below — the pollster’s own release rarely puts them side by side.

Line-up 1 · with Bardella

Jordan Bardella31%
Édouard Philippe21%
Bruno Retailleau16%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon13%
Olivier Faure4.5%
Marine Tondelier4.5%
Fabien Roussel3.5%
Éric Zemmour3.5%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2%
Nathalie Arthaud1%

Line-up 2 · with Le Pen

Marine Le Pen31%
Édouard Philippe21%
Bruno Retailleau16%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon13.5%
Marine Tondelier5%
Olivier Faure4.5%
Fabien Roussel3%
Éric Zemmour3%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2%
Nathalie Arthaud1%

A single poll is one measurement with its own margin of error. Our model weights every published poll, corrects for house effects and projects the range of plausible outcomes.

Our weighted average and projection All 2027 presidential polls

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