France · 2027 presidential poll
IFOP — September 11, 2026
First round, voting intention
Our reading of this poll
Since the pollster’s previous wave (August 26, 2026), same lineup:
- Le Pen 33% → 35% (+2 pts)
- Glucksmann 11% → 9% (−2 pts)
- Mélenchon 16% → 17% (+1 pt)
House effect: on the same lineups, IFOP usually puts Philippe 1.1 pt higher than other pollsters (22 comparisons within 60 days). Not an error: each pollster has its method, and our average accounts for it.
A single poll is one measurement with its own margin of error. Our model weights every published poll, corrects for house effects and projects the range of plausible outcomes.
Our weighted average and projection All 2027 presidential polls