France · 2027 presidential poll

OpinionWay — April 13, 2023

Fieldwork: April 12, 2023 → April 13, 2023
Sample: 1,038 respondents
Published: April 13, 2023
Pollster release: Pollster release

First round, voting intention

Édouard Philippe 32%
Jordan Bardella 23%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 17%
Éric Zemmour 9%
Laurent Wauquiez 7%
Olivier Faure 6%
Philippe Poutou 3%
Sandrine Rousseau 2%
Nathalie Arthaud 1%

Our reading of this poll

House effect: on the same lineups, OpinionWay usually puts Mélenchon 1.5 pt lower than other pollsters (7 comparisons within 60 days). Not an error: each pollster has its method, and our average accounts for it.

Where each candidacy takes its votes from: the candidacy effect

This poll tested 2 candidate line-ups

French pollsters test several hypothetical fields in the same survey. Each one is shown below — the pollster’s own release rarely puts them side by side.

Line-up 1 · with Philippe, Wauquiez, Faure, Rousseau

Édouard Philippe32%
Jordan Bardella23%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon17%
Éric Zemmour9%
Laurent Wauquiez7%
Olivier Faure6%
Philippe Poutou3%
Sandrine Rousseau2%
Nathalie Arthaud1%

Line-up 2 · with Glucksmann, Lecornu

Jordan Bardella32%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon17%
Éric Zemmour7%
Raphaël Glucksmann6%
Philippe Poutou3%
Sébastien Lecornu2%
Nathalie Arthaud1%

A single poll is one measurement with its own margin of error. Our model weights every published poll, corrects for house effects and projects the range of plausible outcomes.

Our weighted average and projection All 2027 presidential polls

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