France · 2027 presidential poll

OpinionWay — March 27, 2026

Fieldwork: March 26, 2026 → March 27, 2026
Sample: 1,009 respondents
Published: March 27, 2026
Pollster release: Pollster release

First round, voting intention

Jordan Bardella 38%
Édouard Philippe 18%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 14%
François Hollande 12%
Bruno Retailleau 11%
Sarah Knafo 5%
Nathalie Arthaud 1%

Our reading of this poll

House effect: on the same lineups, OpinionWay usually puts Mélenchon 1.5 pt lower than other pollsters (7 comparisons within 60 days). Not an error: each pollster has its method, and our average accounts for it.

Where each candidacy takes its votes from: the candidacy effect

This poll tested 2 candidate line-ups

French pollsters test several hypothetical fields in the same survey. Each one is shown below — the pollster’s own release rarely puts them side by side.

Line-up 1 · with Philippe, Hollande

Jordan Bardella38%
Édouard Philippe18%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon14%
François Hollande12%
Bruno Retailleau11%
Sarah Knafo5%
Nathalie Arthaud1%

Line-up 2 · with Glucksmann, Attal

Jordan Bardella38%
Raphaël Glucksmann15%
Gabriel Attal15%
Bruno Retailleau14%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon13%
Sarah Knafo5%
Nathalie Arthaud1%

A single poll is one measurement with its own margin of error. Our model weights every published poll, corrects for house effects and projects the range of plausible outcomes.

Our weighted average and projection All 2027 presidential polls

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