France · 2027 presidential poll

OpinionWay — September 9, 2026

Fieldwork: September 8, 2026 → September 9, 2026
Sample: 1,001 respondents
Published: September 9, 2026
Pollster release: Pollster release

First round, voting intention

Marine Le Pen 34%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 15%
Édouard Philippe 15%
Raphaël Glucksmann 9%
Gabriel Attal 8%
Bruno Retailleau 8%
Éric Zemmour 4%
Marine Tondelier 3%
Fabien Roussel 2%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 2%
Nathalie Arthaud 1%

Our reading of this poll

House effect: on the same lineups, OpinionWay usually puts Mélenchon 1.5 pt lower and Glucksmann 1.2 pt higher than other pollsters (7 comparisons within 60 days). Not an error: each pollster has its method, and our average accounts for it.

Where each candidacy takes its votes from: the candidacy effect

This poll tested 3 candidate line-ups

French pollsters test several hypothetical fields in the same survey. Each one is shown below — the pollster’s own release rarely puts them side by side.

Line-up 1 · with Philippe, Attal

Marine Le Pen34%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon15%
Édouard Philippe15%
Raphaël Glucksmann9%
Gabriel Attal8%
Bruno Retailleau8%
Éric Zemmour4%
Marine Tondelier3%
Fabien Roussel2%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2%
Nathalie Arthaud1%

Line-up 2 · with Philippe

Marine Le Pen34%
Édouard Philippe19%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon15%
Raphaël Glucksmann10%
Bruno Retailleau10%
Éric Zemmour4%
Marine Tondelier3%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3%
Nathalie Arthaud1%
Fabien Roussel1%

Line-up 3 · with Attal

Marine Le Pen33%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon15%
Gabriel Attal14%
Raphaël Glucksmann12%
Bruno Retailleau12%
Marine Tondelier4%
Éric Zemmour4%
Fabien Roussel2%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2%
Nathalie Arthaud1%

A single poll is one measurement with its own margin of error. Our model weights every published poll, corrects for house effects and projects the range of plausible outcomes.

Our weighted average and projection All 2027 presidential polls

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