France · 2027 presidential poll
Cluster17 — October 15, 2026
First round, voting intention
Our reading of this poll
House effect: on the same lineups, Cluster17 usually puts Mélenchon 2.8 pts higher, Le Pen 2.8 pts lower and Philippe 1.1 pt higher than other pollsters (10 comparisons within 60 days). Not an error: each pollster has its method, and our average accounts for it.
This poll tested 5 candidate line-ups
French pollsters test several hypothetical fields in the same survey. Each one is shown below — the pollster’s own release rarely puts them side by side.
Line-up 1 · with Philippe, Lisnard, Retailleau
- Marine Le Pen31%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon18%
- Édouard Philippe17%
- Raphaël Glucksmann11%
- David Lisnard7%
- Bruno Retailleau7%
- Éric Zemmour3%
- Marine Tondelier2%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2%
- Fabien Roussel1.5%
- Nathalie Arthaud0.5%
Line-up 2 · with Lisnard
- Marine Le Pen35.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon20.5%
- David Lisnard17%
- Raphaël Glucksmann16%
- Éric Zemmour4%
- Fabien Roussel2%
- Marine Tondelier2%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2%
- Nathalie Arthaud1%
Line-up 3 · with Retailleau
- Marine Le Pen34.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon20%
- Bruno Retailleau17.5%
- Raphaël Glucksmann16%
- Éric Zemmour4%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3%
- Fabien Roussel2%
- Marine Tondelier2%
- Nathalie Arthaud1%
Line-up 4 · with Philippe
- Marine Le Pen35.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon20%
- Édouard Philippe20%
- Raphaël Glucksmann12%
- Éric Zemmour5%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3%
- Fabien Roussel2%
- Marine Tondelier2%
- Nathalie Arthaud0.5%
Line-up 5 · with Attal
- Marine Le Pen35.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon20%
- Gabriel Attal17%
- Raphaël Glucksmann13.5%
- Éric Zemmour5.5%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3.5%
- Fabien Roussel2%
- Marine Tondelier2%
- Nathalie Arthaud1%
A single poll is one measurement with its own margin of error. Our model weights every published poll, corrects for house effects and projects the range of plausible outcomes.
Our weighted average and projection All 2027 presidential polls