France · 2027 presidential poll
OpinionWay — October 14, 2026
First round, voting intention
Our reading of this poll
Compared with our average for the same lineup (“Le Pen · Philippe · Attal · Glucksmann”):
- Mélenchon 14% vs 16.8% (−2.8 pts)
- Attal 7% vs 4.9% (+2.1 pts)
- Roussel 3% vs 1.9% (+1.1 pt)
Since the pollster’s previous wave (September 10, 2026), same lineup:
- Glucksmann 9% → 13% (+4 pts)
- Philippe 15% → 12% (−3 pts)
- Zemmour 2% → 5% (+3 pts)
House effect: on the same lineups, OpinionWay usually puts Mélenchon 1.5 pt lower and Glucksmann 1.2 pt higher than other pollsters (7 comparisons within 60 days). Not an error: each pollster has its method, and our average accounts for it.
Run-off match-ups tested
- null 32% — 68% null
- null 44% — 56% null
This poll tested 4 candidate line-ups
French pollsters test several hypothetical fields in the same survey. Each one is shown below — the pollster’s own release rarely puts them side by side.
Line-up 1 · with Philippe, Attal, Lisnard, Bouamrane
- Marine Le Pen35%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon15%
- Raphaël Glucksmann13%
- Édouard Philippe12%
- Bruno Retailleau6%
- Gabriel Attal5%
- Éric Zemmour5%
- David Lisnard4%
- Marine Tondelier2%
- Nathalie Arthaud1%
- Fabien Roussel1%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan1%
- Karim Bouamrane0.5%
Line-up 2 · with Philippe, Attal
- Marine Le Pen35%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon14%
- Raphaël Glucksmann13%
- Édouard Philippe12%
- Gabriel Attal7%
- Bruno Retailleau7%
- Éric Zemmour4%
- Fabien Roussel3%
- Marine Tondelier3%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2%
- Nathalie Arthaud0.5%
Line-up 3 · with Philippe
- Marine Le Pen35%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon15%
- Raphaël Glucksmann15%
- Édouard Philippe15%
- Bruno Retailleau8%
- Éric Zemmour4%
- Marine Tondelier3%
- Fabien Roussel2%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2%
- Nathalie Arthaud1%
Line-up 4 · with Attal
- Marine Le Pen37%
- Raphaël Glucksmann16%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon15%
- Gabriel Attal11%
- Bruno Retailleau9%
- Éric Zemmour4%
- Marine Tondelier3%
- Fabien Roussel2%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2%
- Nathalie Arthaud1%
A single poll is one measurement with its own margin of error. Our model weights every published poll, corrects for house effects and projects the range of plausible outcomes.
Our weighted average and projection All 2027 presidential polls