Riding profile

Français établis hors de France — 1ere circonscription

Circonscription française — Français établis hors de France

The question

Français établis hors de France — 1ere circonscription: a safe seat for the centrist bloc?

Editorial read

Français établis hors de France — 1ere circonscription, a mixed riding in Français établis hors de France, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 39% vote share, against 35% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Roland LESCURE

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Safe

Probability
93%
Mean margin (pts)
3.4
P(close race)
14%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Centre (Ensemble) 38.6%
  • Left (NFP) 35.2%
  • RN and allies 15.1%
  • LR and allies 7.9%
  • Others 3.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) RN and allies LR and allies
HereFrançais établis hors de France — 1ere circonscription 38.6%35.2%15.1%7.9%
Provincial averageFrançais établis hors de France 33.1% +5.4 35.6% −0.4 16.6% −1.5 10.6% −2.7
National averageFrance 20.6% +18.0 29.5% +5.7 36.0% −20.9 12.2% −4.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Roland LESCURE Elected Centre (Ensemble) 36,363 38.8 —
Oussama LARAICHI Left (NFP) 33,822 36.1 —
Jennifer ADAM RN and allies 10,018 10.7 —
Olivier PITON LR and allies 4,856 5.2 —
Véronique JACKSON Centre (Ensemble) 4,643 5.0 —
Elias FORNERIS LR and allies 1,414 1.5 —
Alexandra POURCHET RN and allies 1,357 1.4 —
Greg LACOSTE Others 1,090 1.2 —
Paloma LADAM Left (NFP) 67 0.1 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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