Riding profile

Français établis hors de France — 9ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Français établis hors de France

The question

Français établis hors de France — 9ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Français établis hors de France — 9ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Français établis hors de France, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 58% vote share, against 16% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Karim BEN CHEÏKH

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
42.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 57.8%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 15.7%
  • RN and allies 14.5%
  • LR and allies 8.4%
  • Others 3.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies LR and allies
HereFrançais établis hors de France — 9ème circonscription 57.8%15.7%14.5%8.4%
Provincial averageFrançais établis hors de France 35.6% +22.2 33.1% −17.5 16.6% −2.1 10.6% −2.2
National averageFrance 29.5% +28.3 20.6% −4.9 36.0% −21.5 12.2% −3.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+42.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Karim BEN CHEÏKH Elected Left (NFP) 18,505 51.6
Samira DJOUADI Centre (Ensemble) 5,634 15.7
Elodie CHARRON RN and allies 3,817 10.6
Ismaël BOUDJEKADA Left (NFP) 1,421 4.0
Jihad BADREDDINE LR and allies 1,242 3.5
Erwan Borhan DAVOUX LR and allies 1,222 3.4
Seddik KHALFI Left (NFP) 1,171 3.3
Rachid TAHIRI Centre (Ensemble) 1,102 3.1
Régina DUCELLIER Centre (Ensemble) 693 1.9
Pierre DREVON RN and allies 311 0.9
Hassan OUDRHIRI Others 236 0.7
Sébastien PERIMONY Others 172 0.5
Kourtoum SACKHO LR and allies 117 0.3
Gabriel Marie SIDIBÉ Others 84 0.2
Rania Tessa MAACHOU Others 61 0.2
Hachim FADILI Sovereignists 53 0.1
Edouard TINAUGUS Left (NFP) 20 0.1
Khadija DAVID Left (NFP) 11 0.0
Abdoulai DIANIFABA Others 8 0.0
Last model run
Cycle
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