Riding profile

Français établis hors de France — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Français établis hors de France

The question

Français établis hors de France — 4ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Français établis hors de France — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Français établis hors de France, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 39% vote share, against 36% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Pieyre-Alexandre ANGLADE

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Toss-up

Probability
55%
Mean margin (pts)
2.5
P(close race)
90%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 38.6%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 36.1%
  • RN and allies 13.3%
  • LR and allies 9.4%
  • Others 2.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies LR and allies
HereFrançais établis hors de France — 4ème circonscription 38.6%36.1%13.3%9.4%
Provincial averageFrançais établis hors de France 35.6% +3.0 33.1% +2.9 16.6% −3.2 10.6% −1.2
National averageFrance 29.5% +9.1 20.6% +15.5 36.0% −22.6 12.2% −2.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.5 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Cécilia GONDARD Left (NFP) 27,898 37.5 —
Pieyre-Alexandre ANGLADE Elected Centre (Ensemble) 26,410 35.5 —
Charlotte BEAUFILS RN and allies 6,736 9.0 —
Genevieve MACHICOTE LR and allies 4,604 6.2 —
Juliette DE CAUSANS Centre (Ensemble) 4,318 5.8 —
Sacha COURTIAL Left (NFP) 1,563 2.1 —
Patrick BRISSET LR and allies 1,492 2.0 —
Anne-Catherine GIRARD RN and allies 1,001 1.3 —
Aude ROSSOLINI Others 463 0.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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