Riding profile
Français établis hors de France — 8ème circonscription
The question
Français établis hors de France — 8ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to LR and allies?
Editorial read
Français établis hors de France — 8ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Français établis hors de France, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 41% vote share, against 24% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Caroline YADAN
Sits with Centre (Ensemble)
Current forecast
LR and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 17.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | RN and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereFrançais établis hors de France — 8ème circonscription | 41.2% | 23.6% | 22.2% | 9.3% |
| Provincial averageFrançais établis hors de France | 10.6% +30.7 | 35.6% −11.9 | 33.1% −10.9 | 16.6% −7.3 |
| National averageFrance | 12.2% +29.0 | 29.5% −5.8 | 20.6% +1.7 | 36.0% −26.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meyer HABIB | LR and allies | 11,557 | 35.6 | — |
| Caroline YADAN Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 7,855 | 24.2 | — |
| Yaël LERER | Left (NFP) | 7,516 | 23.1 | — |
| Guillaume BENSOUSSAN | RN and allies | 2,044 | 6.3 | — |
| Aurelie ASSOULINE | LR and allies | 1,329 | 4.1 | — |
| Gilles NEFFATI | Centre (Ensemble) | 1,025 | 3.2 | — |
| Valérie CHARTRAIN | Left (NFP) | 457 | 1.4 | — |
| Nicolas SPITALAS | Others | 299 | 0.9 | — |
| Philippe HABABOU SOLOMON | LR and allies | 197 | 0.6 | — |
| David BIZET | Others | 188 | 0.6 | — |
| Benjamin SIGOURA | Others | 15 | 0.1 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Français établis hors de France — 1ere circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Safe seatOpen →
- Français établis hors de France — 2ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Français établis hors de France — 3ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) CompetitiveOpen →
- Français établis hors de France — 4ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Français établis hors de France — 5ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) CompetitiveOpen →
- Français établis hors de France — 6ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Safe seatOpen →
- Français établis hors de France — 7ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) CompetitiveOpen →
- Français établis hors de France — 9ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
fr_leg_next