Riding profile

Français établis hors de France — 6ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Français établis hors de France

The question

Français établis hors de France — 6ème circonscription: a safe seat for the centrist bloc?

Editorial read

Français établis hors de France — 6ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Français établis hors de France, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 39% vote share, against 31% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Marc FERRACCI

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
7.1
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Centre (Ensemble) 38.5%
  • Left (NFP) 31.4%
  • RN and allies 19.0%
  • LR and allies 7.8%
  • Others 3.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) RN and allies LR and allies
HereFrançais établis hors de France — 6ème circonscription 38.5%31.4%19.0%7.8%
Provincial averageFrançais établis hors de France 33.1% +5.4 35.6% −4.2 16.6% +2.5 10.6% −2.7
National averageFrance 20.6% +18.0 29.5% +1.9 36.0% −16.9 12.2% −4.4

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Marc FERRACCI Elected Centre (Ensemble) 25,590 40.5 —
Halima DELIMI Left (NFP) 19,446 30.8 —
Déborah MERCERON RN and allies 9,158 14.5 —
Olivier CORTICCHIATO LR and allies 4,172 6.6 —
Jacques DE CAUSANS Centre (Ensemble) 1,888 3.0 —
Philippe TISSOT RN and allies 949 1.5 —
Marie-Julie JACQUEMOT Left (NFP) 651 1.0 —
Arnaud DORTHE Others 627 1.0 —
Céline VON AUW Greens 419 0.7 —
Michèle SELLES LEFRANC Left (NFP) 222 0.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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