Riding profile

Français établis hors de France — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Français établis hors de France

The question

Français établis hors de France — 3ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Français établis hors de France — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Français établis hors de France, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 41% vote share, against 39% for the united left, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Vincent CAURE

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Toss-up

Probability
80%
Mean margin (pts)
1.4
P(close race)
40%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Centre (Ensemble) 40.9%
  • Left (NFP) 39.5%
  • RN and allies 10.7%
  • LR and allies 6.6%
  • Others 2.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) RN and allies LR and allies
HereFrançais établis hors de France — 3ème circonscription 40.9%39.5%10.7%6.6%
Provincial averageFrançais établis hors de France 33.1% +7.7 35.6% +3.9 16.6% −5.9 10.6% −4.0
National averageFrance 20.6% +20.3 29.5% +10.0 36.0% −25.3 12.2% −5.6

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Charlotte MINVIELLE Left (NFP) 26,873 39.2 —
Vincent CAURE Elected Centre (Ensemble) 26,810 39.1 —
Sophie CHARBONNET RN and allies 4,504 6.6 —
Balthazar ROGER LR and allies 3,442 5.0 —
Assamahou LAMARRE Centre (Ensemble) 3,365 4.9 —
Joel HESLAUT Centre (Ensemble) 1,251 1.8 —
Anthony COUTRET RN and allies 752 1.1 —
Tanguy PINOMAA-DANZÉ Left (NFP) 701 1.0 —
Emmanuel CONSTANTIN Greens 355 0.5 —
Tim CRAYE LR and allies 236 0.3 —
Yvan BACHAUD Others 226 0.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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