Riding profile

Français établis hors de France — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Français établis hors de France

The question

Français établis hors de France — 2ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Français établis hors de France — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Français établis hors de France, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 35% vote share, against 33% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Eléonore CAROIT

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Toss-up

Probability
72%
Mean margin (pts)
1.7
P(close race)
57%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 35.2%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 33.5%
  • RN and allies 18.1%
  • LR and allies 11.1%
  • Others 2.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies LR and allies
HereFrançais établis hors de France — 2ème circonscription 35.2%33.5%18.1%11.1%
Provincial averageFrançais établis hors de France 35.6% −0.4 33.1% +0.3 16.6% +1.6 10.6% +0.5
National averageFrance 29.5% +5.7 20.6% +12.9 36.0% −17.8 12.2% −1.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sergio CORONADO Left (NFP) 6,952 36.2 —
Eléonore CAROIT Elected Centre (Ensemble) 6,440 33.5 —
Marie-Nathalie GONCALVES RN and allies 2,553 13.3 —
Bertrand DUPONT LR and allies 1,905 9.9 —
Jessica AGOSTINI Centre (Ensemble) 987 5.1 —
Nora COURMONTAGNE RN and allies 373 1.9 —
Camille MERCIER Others 17 0.1 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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