Riding profile

Français établis hors de France — 7ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Français établis hors de France

The question

Français établis hors de France — 7ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Français établis hors de France — 7ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Français établis hors de France, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 39% vote share, against 37% for the united left, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Frédéric PETIT

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Toss-up

Probability
80%
Mean margin (pts)
2.1
P(close race)
40%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Centre (Ensemble) 39.2%
  • Left (NFP) 37.1%
  • RN and allies 12.0%
  • LR and allies 5.9%
  • Others 5.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) RN and allies LR and allies
HereFrançais établis hors de France — 7ème circonscription 39.2%37.1%12.0%5.9%
Provincial averageFrançais établis hors de France 33.1% +6.1 35.6% +1.5 16.6% −4.6 10.6% −4.7
National averageFrance 20.6% +18.6 29.5% +7.6 36.0% −24.0 12.2% −6.4

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Frédéric PETIT Elected Centre (Ensemble) 21,929 37.8 —
Asma RHARMAOUI-CLAQUIN Left (NFP) 18,914 32.6 —
Mathilde NAVEYS--DUMAS RN and allies 4,520 7.8 —
Isabelle HUQUET Centre (Ensemble) 3,861 6.7 —
Cécile RICHARD Left (NFP) 3,211 5.5 —
Dominique MIER-GARRIGOU LR and allies 2,702 4.7 —
Jérôme CHAMBON Others 1,948 3.4 —
Julie ALEXANDRE RN and allies 720 1.2 —
Fanny GEFFRAY Others 245 0.4 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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