Riding profile
Français établis hors de France — 5ème circonscription
The question
Français établis hors de France — 5ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Français établis hors de France — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Français établis hors de France, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 34% vote share, against 32% for the united left, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Stéphane VOJETTA
Sits with Centre (Ensemble)
Current forecast
Centre (Ensemble)
Toss-up
- Probability
- 82%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.2
- P(close race)
- 37%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | RN and allies | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereFrançais établis hors de France — 5ème circonscription | 33.7% | 32.4% | 24.2% | 6.0% |
| Provincial averageFrançais établis hors de France | 33.1% +0.5 | 35.6% −3.1 | 16.6% +7.6 | 10.6% −4.6 |
| National averageFrance | 20.6% +13.1 | 29.5% +3.0 | 36.0% −11.8 | 12.2% −6.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stéphane VOJETTA Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 14,492 | 33.7 | — |
| Maxime DA SILVA | Left (NFP) | 11,267 | 26.2 | — |
| Johana MAUREL | RN and allies | 8,385 | 19.5 | — |
| José SANCHEZ PEREZ | Centre (Ensemble) | 2,226 | 5.2 | — |
| Jeremie FOSSE | Left (NFP) | 2,161 | 5.0 | — |
| Yohann CASTRO | LR and allies | 2,069 | 4.8 | — |
| Béatrice MAZEL | RN and allies | 794 | 1.9 | — |
| Sarah MILLOT | Left (NFP) | 587 | 1.4 | — |
| Alexandre MARIE | Left (NFP) | 353 | 0.8 | — |
| Jean-François CALVET | Sovereignists | 308 | 0.7 | — |
| Maud LAGARDE | Others | 187 | 0.4 | — |
| Christopher BRENIER | Others | 132 | 0.3 | — |
| David NATAF | Others | 70 | 0.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Français établis hors de France — 1ere circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Safe seatOpen →
- Français établis hors de France — 2ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Français établis hors de France — 3ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) CompetitiveOpen →
- Français établis hors de France — 4ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Français établis hors de France — 6ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Safe seatOpen →
- Français établis hors de France — 7ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) CompetitiveOpen →
- Français établis hors de France — 8ème circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Français établis hors de France — 9ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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