Riding profile
Français établis hors de France — 10ème circonscription
The question
Français établis hors de France — 10ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Français établis hors de France — 10ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Français établis hors de France, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 32% vote share, against 31% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Amélia LAKRAFI
Sits with Centre (Ensemble)
Current forecast
Centre (Ensemble)
Toss-up
- Probability
- 82%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 0.3
- P(close race)
- 37%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | RN and allies | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereFrançais établis hors de France — 10ème circonscription | 31.6% | 31.3% | 22.4% | 10.9% |
| Provincial averageFrançais établis hors de France | 35.6% −4.0 | 33.1% −1.9 | 16.6% +5.8 | 10.6% +0.3 |
| National averageFrance | 29.5% +2.1 | 20.6% +10.7 | 36.0% −13.6 | 12.2% −1.3 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elsa DI MEO | Left (NFP) | 11,651 | 32.5 | — |
| Amélia LAKRAFI Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 11,398 | 31.8 | — |
| Jean DE VERON | RN and allies | 6,147 | 17.2 | — |
| Lucas LAMAH | LR and allies | 3,488 | 9.7 | — |
| Marie Josée MABASI | Centre (Ensemble) | 948 | 2.6 | — |
| Philippe CASTELLAN | RN and allies | 842 | 2.4 | — |
| Ali Camille HOJEIJ | Centre (Ensemble) | 709 | 2.0 | — |
| Odile MOJON-CHEMINADE | Others | 450 | 1.3 | — |
| Sandra LAROSE | Others | 94 | 0.3 | — |
| Julie LAGUI | Others | 70 | 0.2 | — |
| Hugues Michel MARIE-LOUISE | Others | 20 | 0.1 | — |
| Nathalie MAZOT | Left (NFP) | 7 | 0.0 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Français établis hors de France — 1ere circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Safe seatOpen →
- Français établis hors de France — 2ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Français établis hors de France — 3ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) CompetitiveOpen →
- Français établis hors de France — 4ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Français établis hors de France — 5ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) CompetitiveOpen →
- Français établis hors de France — 6ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Safe seatOpen →
- Français établis hors de France — 7ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) CompetitiveOpen →
- Français établis hors de France — 8ème circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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