Riding profile

Français établis hors de France — 11ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Français établis hors de France

The question

Français établis hors de France — 11ème circonscription: a safe seat for the centrist bloc?

Editorial read

Français établis hors de France — 11ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Français établis hors de France, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 35% vote share, against 29% for the united left, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Anne GENETET

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Competitive

Probability
85%
Mean margin (pts)
5.9
P(close race)
29%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Centre (Ensemble) 35.0%
  • Left (NFP) 29.1%
  • RN and allies 23.6%
  • Others 4.2%
  • Sovereignists 3.9%
  • Greens 3.0%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) RN and allies Others
HereFrançais établis hors de France — 11ème circonscription 35.0%29.1%23.6%4.2%
Provincial averageFrançais établis hors de France 33.1% +1.8 35.6% −6.5 16.6% +7.0 3.3% +0.8
National averageFrance 20.6% +14.4 29.5% −0.4 36.0% −12.4 3.9% +0.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.9 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Anne GENETET Elected Centre (Ensemble) 16,770 39.9
Franck PAJOT Left (NFP) 12,502 29.8
Pierre BROCHET RN and allies 6,424 15.3
Marc GUYON RN and allies 1,495 3.6
François ASSELINEAU Sovereignists 1,376 3.3
Tatiana BOTEVA-MALO Greens 949 2.3
Anne-France LARQUEMIN RN and allies 719 1.7
Jordan CRUCIANI Greens 574 1.4
Françoise ARTHUR Others 507 1.2
Elise PHONRATH Sovereignists 244 0.6
Jacques CHEMINADE Others 224 0.5
Nelly VIOLETTE Others 148 0.3
Victor MAUREL Others 30 0.1
Nathalie MARTIN Left (NFP) 14 0.0
Olivier MACHET Others 10 0.0
Last model run
Cycle
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