Riding profile
Français établis hors de France — 11ème circonscription
The question
Français établis hors de France — 11ème circonscription: a safe seat for the centrist bloc?
Editorial read
Français établis hors de France — 11ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Français établis hors de France, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 35% vote share, against 29% for the united left, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
Anne GENETET
Sits with Centre (Ensemble)
Current forecast
Centre (Ensemble)
Competitive
- Probability
- 85%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.9
- P(close race)
- 29%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereFrançais établis hors de France — 11ème circonscription | 35.0% | 29.1% | 23.6% | 4.2% |
| Provincial averageFrançais établis hors de France | 33.1% +1.8 | 35.6% −6.5 | 16.6% +7.0 | 3.3% +0.8 |
| National averageFrance | 20.6% +14.4 | 29.5% −0.4 | 36.0% −12.4 | 3.9% +0.3 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anne GENETET Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 16,770 | 39.9 | — |
| Franck PAJOT | Left (NFP) | 12,502 | 29.8 | — |
| Pierre BROCHET | RN and allies | 6,424 | 15.3 | — |
| Marc GUYON | RN and allies | 1,495 | 3.6 | — |
| François ASSELINEAU | Sovereignists | 1,376 | 3.3 | — |
| Tatiana BOTEVA-MALO | Greens | 949 | 2.3 | — |
| Anne-France LARQUEMIN | RN and allies | 719 | 1.7 | — |
| Jordan CRUCIANI | Greens | 574 | 1.4 | — |
| Françoise ARTHUR | Others | 507 | 1.2 | — |
| Elise PHONRATH | Sovereignists | 244 | 0.6 | — |
| Jacques CHEMINADE | Others | 224 | 0.5 | — |
| Nelly VIOLETTE | Others | 148 | 0.3 | — |
| Victor MAUREL | Others | 30 | 0.1 | — |
| Nathalie MARTIN | Left (NFP) | 14 | 0.0 | — |
| Olivier MACHET | Others | 10 | 0.0 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Français établis hors de France — 1ere circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Safe seatOpen →
- Français établis hors de France — 2ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Français établis hors de France — 3ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) CompetitiveOpen →
- Français établis hors de France — 4ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Français établis hors de France — 5ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) CompetitiveOpen →
- Français établis hors de France — 6ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Safe seatOpen →
- Français établis hors de France — 7ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) CompetitiveOpen →
- Français établis hors de France — 8ème circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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