Riding profile

Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Editorial read

Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 48% vote share, against 21% for the SNP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jamie Stone

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2017-06-08
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
26.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 47.6%
  • SNP 21.5%
  • Reform UK 16.8%
  • Conservative 4.9%
  • Green 4.3%
  • Other 3.5%
  • Labour 1.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems SNP Reform UK Conservative
HereCaithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 47.6%21.5%16.8%4.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.6% +36.0 2.5% +18.9 25.3% −8.5 18.9% −14.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
22.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jamie Stone Elected Lib Dems 22,736 49.4
Lucy Beattie SNP 12,247 26.6
Eva Kestner Labour 3,409 7.4
Sandra Skinner Reform UK 3,360 7.3
Fiona Fawcett Conservative 1,860 4.0
Anne Thomas Green 1,641 3.6
Steve Chisholm Other 795 1.7

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
65.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029