Riding profile
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey
The question
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
SNP
Toss-up
- Probability
- 86%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 0.7
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| SNP | Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMoray West, Nairn and Strathspey | 27.4% | 26.8% | 22.9% | 8.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.8% +24.6 | 19.3% +7.5 | 25.4% −2.5 | 11.4% −2.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with the SNP in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 27% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Graham Leadbitter
Sits with SNP
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graham Leadbitter Elected | SNP | 14,961 | 32.1 | — |
| Kathleen Robertson | Conservative | 13,960 | 30.0 | — |
| James Hynam | Labour | 8,259 | 17.7 | — |
| Neil Alexander | Lib Dems | 3,785 | 8.1 | — |
| Steve Skerrett | Reform UK | 3,490 | 7.5 | — |
| Draeyk Van der Horn | Green | 1,676 | 3.6 | — |
| Euan Morrice | Other | 423 | 0.9 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029