Riding profile

Orkney and Shetland

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Orkney and Shetland: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
29.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 47.2%
  • SNP 17.4%
  • Reform UK 15.7%
  • Green 15.0%
  • Conservative 2.5%
  • Labour 1.2%
  • Other 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems SNP Reform UK Green
HereOrkney and Shetland 47.2%17.4%15.7%15.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.4% +35.9 2.8% +14.7 25.4% −9.6 10.8% +4.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Orkney and Shetland, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 47% vote share, against 17% for the SNP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mr Alistair Carmichael

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2001-06-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
37.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Alistair Carmichael Elected Lib Dems 11,392 55.1 —
Robert Leslie SNP 3,585 17.3 —
Alex Armitage Green 2,046 9.9 —
Robert Smith Reform UK 1,586 7.7 —
Conor Savage Labour 1,493 7.2 —
Shane Painter Conservative 586 2.8 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
89.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029