Riding profile
Orkney and Shetland
The question
Orkney and Shetland: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Editorial read
Orkney and Shetland, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 56% vote share, against 12% for the SNP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Mr Alistair Carmichael
Sits with Lib Dems
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 43.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | SNP | Green | Reform UK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereOrkney and Shetland | 55.6% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 9.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.6% +44.0 | 2.5% +9.3 | 11.8% −1.8 | 25.3% −15.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alistair Carmichael Elected | Lib Dems | 11,392 | 55.1 | — |
| Robert Leslie | SNP | 3,585 | 17.3 | — |
| Alex Armitage | Green | 2,046 | 9.9 | — |
| Robert Smith | Reform UK | 1,586 | 7.7 | — |
| Conor Savage | Labour | 1,493 | 7.2 | — |
| Shane Painter | Conservative | 586 | 2.8 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029