Riding profile
Labrador
The question
Labrador: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 19.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLabrador | 52.7% | 33.0% | 3.3% | 0.8% |
| Provincial averageNewfoundland and Labrador | 56.0% −3.4 | 31.9% +1.2 | 3.8% −0.6 | 0.8% −0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +4.7 | 32.1% +0.9 | 10.6% −7.3 | 2.7% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Labrador, a rural riding in Newfoundland and Labrador, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 53% vote share, against 33% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 92% anglophone.
Sitting member
Philip Earle
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Earle Elected | Liberal | 5,811 | 51.5 | Executive Management |
| Ella Wallace | Conservative | 4,709 | 41.7 | Operations Manager |
| Marius Normore | NDP | 764 | 6.8 | Health and Safety Advisor |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 0.8%
- Anglophone 92.3%
- Non-francophone (other) 6.9%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46