Riding profile

Labrador

Federal riding — NL · Rural · atlantic

The question

Labrador: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Labrador, a rural riding in Newfoundland and Labrador, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 49% vote share, against 35% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 92% anglophone.

Sitting member

Philip Earle

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 49.2%
  • Conservative 35.4%
  • NDP 4.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereLabrador 49.2%35.4%4.9%0.5%
Provincial averageNewfoundland and Labrador 51.6% −2.4 34.1% +1.4 5.8% −0.9 0.5% −0.1
National averageCanada 41.9% +7.3 34.8% +0.6 14.2% −9.3 2.1% −1.7

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
9.6 pts
Turnout
57.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Philip Earle Elected Liberal 5,811 51.5 Executive Management
Ella Wallace Conservative 4,709 41.7 Operations Manager
Marius Normore NDP 764 6.8 Health and Safety Advisor

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.8%
  • Anglophone 92.3%
  • Non-francophone (other) 6.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46