Riding profile

Côte-Nord--Kawawachikamach--Nitassinan

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Côte-Nord--Kawawachikamach--Nitassinan: a safe seat for the Bloc Québécois?

Editorial read

Côte-Nord--Kawawachikamach--Nitassinan, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Bloc Québécois in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Bloc Québécois ahead at 43% vote share, against 29% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 88% francophone, 5% anglophone.

Sitting member

Marilène Gill

Sits with Bloc

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Bloc

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Bloc 43.0%
  • Conservative 29.5%
  • Liberal 25.1%
  • NDP 6.1%
  • Green 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Bloc Conservative Liberal NDP
HereCôte-Nord--Kawawachikamach--Nitassinan 43.0%29.5%25.1%6.1%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.3% +15.8 26.9% +2.6 40.7% −15.6 7.0% −0.9
National averageCanada 6.1% +36.9 34.8% −5.3 41.9% −16.8 14.2% −8.1

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Bloc
Margin
16.1 pts
Turnout
52.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.5 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Marilène Gill Elected Bloc 16,243 43.7 Teacher
Kevin Coutu Liberal 10,185 27.4 Lawyer
Mélanie Dorion Conservative 9,365 25.2 Entrepreneur
Marika Lalime NDP 640 1.7 Law Student
Sébastien Beaulieu Other 557 1.5 Marketing Agent
Gilles Babin Independent 193 0.5 Self-Employed

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 88.4%
  • Anglophone 4.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 6.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46