Riding profile

Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 38% vote share, against 33% for the Bloc Québécois, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 64% francophone, 8% anglophone.

Sitting member

Mandy Gull-Masty

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
97%
Mean margin (pts)
5.2
P(close race)
48%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 38.3%
  • Bloc 33.2%
  • Conservative 27.0%
  • NDP 5.0%
  • Green 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Bloc Conservative NDP
HereAbitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou 38.3%33.2%27.0%5.0%
Provincial averageQuebec 40.7% −2.4 27.3% +5.9 26.9% +0.1 7.0% −2.0
National averageCanada 41.9% −3.6 6.1% +27.1 34.8% −7.8 14.2% −9.2

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
7.0 pts
Turnout
47.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.8 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mandy Gull-Masty Elected Liberal 12,578 41.2 Unemployed
Sylvie Bérubé Bloc 10,381 34.0 Parliamentarian
Steve Corriveau Conservative 6,850 22.4 Delivery Man
Thai Dillon Higashihara NDP 752 2.5 Digital Organizer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 64.3%
  • Anglophone 7.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 28.2%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46