Riding profile

Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.6
P(close race)
5%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 42.8%
  • Bloc 33.2%
  • Conservative 25.1%
  • NDP 3.0%
  • Green 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Bloc Conservative NDP
HereAbitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou 42.8%33.2%25.1%3.0%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% −2.6 27.3% +5.9 24.8% +0.3 5.1% −2.0
National averageCanada 48.0% −5.2 5.7% +27.5 32.1% −7.0 10.6% −7.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 43% vote share, against 33% for the Bloc Québécois, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 64% francophone, 8% anglophone.

Sitting member

Mandy Gull-Masty

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
7.0 pts
Turnout
47.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mandy Gull-Masty Elected Liberal 12,578 41.2 Unemployed
Sylvie Bérubé Bloc 10,381 34.0 Parliamentarian
Steve Corriveau Conservative 6,850 22.4 Delivery Man
Thai Dillon Higashihara NDP 752 2.5 Digital Organizer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 64.3%
  • Anglophone 7.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 28.2%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46