Riding profile
Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou
The question
Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.6
- P(close race)
- 5%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Bloc | Conservative | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAbitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou | 42.8% | 33.2% | 25.1% | 3.0% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 45.4% −2.6 | 27.3% +5.9 | 24.8% +0.3 | 5.1% −2.0 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% −5.2 | 5.7% +27.5 | 32.1% −7.0 | 10.6% −7.5 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 43% vote share, against 33% for the Bloc Québécois, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 64% francophone, 8% anglophone.
Sitting member
Mandy Gull-Masty
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mandy Gull-Masty Elected | Liberal | 12,578 | 41.2 | Unemployed |
| Sylvie Bérubé | Bloc | 10,381 | 34.0 | Parliamentarian |
| Steve Corriveau | Conservative | 6,850 | 22.4 | Delivery Man |
| Thai Dillon Higashihara | NDP | 752 | 2.5 | Digital Organizer |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 64.3%
- Anglophone 7.5%
- Non-francophone (other) 28.2%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46