Riding profile

Lac-Saint-Jean

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Lac-Saint-Jean: a safe seat for the Bloc Québécois?

Editorial read

Lac-Saint-Jean, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Bloc Québécois in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Bloc Québécois ahead at 46% vote share, against 28% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 100% francophone, 0% anglophone.

Sitting member

Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe

Sits with Bloc

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Bloc

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Bloc 46.0%
  • Conservative 27.9%
  • Liberal 24.0%
  • NDP 6.1%
  • PPC 1.2%
  • Green 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Bloc Conservative Liberal NDP
HereLac-Saint-Jean 46.0%27.9%24.0%6.1%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.3% +18.7 26.9% +1.0 40.7% −16.7 7.0% −0.9
National averageCanada 6.1% +39.9 34.8% −6.9 41.9% −17.9 14.2% −8.1

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Bloc
Margin
19.7 pts
Turnout
64.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.7 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe Elected Bloc 22,069 46.2 Parliamentarian
Denis Lemieux Liberal 12,536 26.3 Retired
Dave Blackburn Conservative 11,792 24.7 Professor
Hugues Boily-Maltais NDP 819 1.7 Social Worker
Lorie Bouchard PPC 540 1.1 Teacher

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 99.5%
  • Anglophone 0.2%
  • Non-francophone (other) 0.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46