Riding profile

Lac-Saint-Jean

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Lac-Saint-Jean: a safe seat for the Bloc Québécois?

Current forecast

Bloc

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
17.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Bloc 46.0%
  • Liberal 28.5%
  • Conservative 26.1%
  • NDP 4.1%
  • PPC 1.4%
  • Green 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Bloc Liberal Conservative NDP
HereLac-Saint-Jean 46.0%28.5%26.1%4.1%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.3% +18.7 45.4% −16.9 24.8% +1.3 5.1% −0.9
National averageCanada 5.7% +40.3 48.0% −19.5 32.1% −6.0 10.6% −6.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Lac-Saint-Jean, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Bloc Québécois in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Bloc Québécois ahead at 46% vote share, against 28% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 100% francophone, 0% anglophone.

Sitting member

Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe

Sits with Bloc

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Bloc
Margin
19.7 pts
Turnout
64.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe Elected Bloc 22,069 46.2 Parliamentarian
Denis Lemieux Liberal 12,536 26.3 Retired
Dave Blackburn Conservative 11,792 24.7 Professor
Hugues Boily-Maltais NDP 819 1.7 Social Worker
Lorie Bouchard PPC 540 1.1 Teacher

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 99.5%
  • Anglophone 0.2%
  • Non-francophone (other) 0.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46