Riding profile

Jonquière

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Jonquière: a safe seat for the Bloc Québécois?

Current forecast

Bloc

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.3
P(close race)
12%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Bloc 39.8%
  • Conservative 31.5%
  • Liberal 28.2%
  • NDP 4.3%
  • Green 1.6%
  • PPC 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Bloc Conservative Liberal NDP
HereJonquière 39.8%31.5%28.2%4.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.3% +12.5 24.8% +6.7 45.4% −17.2 5.1% −0.8
National averageCanada 5.7% +34.1 32.1% −0.6 48.0% −19.8 10.6% −6.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Jonquière, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Bloc Québécois in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Bloc Québécois ahead at 40% vote share, against 32% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 99% francophone, 0% anglophone.

Sitting member

Mario Simard

Sits with Bloc

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Bloc
Margin
9.6 pts
Turnout
67.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mario Simard Elected Bloc 20,247 40.0 Teacher
Fanny Boulanger Conservative 15,314 30.2 Parliamentary Affairs Manager
William Van Tassel Liberal 13,172 26.0 Farmer
Lise Garon NDP 932 1.8 Political Scientist
Patrick Gaudreault PPC 516 1.0 Real Estate Broker
Marie-Josée Yelle Green 448 0.9 Teacher

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 99.3%
  • Anglophone 0.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 0.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46