Riding profile

Saint-Maurice--Champlain

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Saint-Maurice--Champlain: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
25.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 51.8%
  • Conservative 26.0%
  • Bloc 21.3%
  • NDP 3.0%
  • Green 1.8%
  • PPC 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Bloc NDP
HereSaint-Maurice--Champlain 51.8%26.0%21.3%3.0%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% +6.4 24.8% +1.2 27.3% −6.0 5.1% −2.1
National averageCanada 48.0% +3.8 32.1% −6.1 5.7% +15.6 10.6% −7.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Saint-Maurice--Champlain, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 52% vote share, against 26% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 97% francophone, 1% anglophone.

Sitting member

François-Philippe Champagne

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
24.9 pts
Turnout
65.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.8 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
François-Philippe Champagne Elected Liberal 31,095 50.0 Lawyer
Pierre-Augustin Allard Conservative 15,321 24.6 Communications Advisor
Thierry Bilodeau Bloc 13,190 21.2 Communications Consultant
Nathalie Garceau NDP 1,224 2.0 Project Manager
Marie-Claude Gaudet Green 704 1.1 Administrative Assistant
David Rioux PPC 455 0.7 Maintenance Worker
Dji-Pé Frazer Other 251 0.4 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 96.6%
  • Anglophone 0.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 2.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46