Riding profile

Saint-Maurice--Champlain

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Saint-Maurice--Champlain: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Saint-Maurice--Champlain, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 47% vote share, against 28% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 97% francophone, 1% anglophone.

Sitting member

François-Philippe Champagne

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 47.3%
  • Conservative 27.8%
  • Bloc 21.3%
  • NDP 4.9%
  • Green 1.7%
  • PPC 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Bloc NDP
HereSaint-Maurice--Champlain 47.3%27.8%21.3%4.9%
Provincial averageQuebec 40.7% +6.6 26.9% +0.9 27.3% −6.0 7.0% −2.1
National averageCanada 41.9% +5.4 34.8% −7.0 6.1% +15.2 14.2% −9.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
24.9 pts
Turnout
65.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.5 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
François-Philippe Champagne Elected Liberal 31,095 50.0 Lawyer
Pierre-Augustin Allard Conservative 15,321 24.6 Communications Advisor
Thierry Bilodeau Bloc 13,190 21.2 Communications Consultant
Nathalie Garceau NDP 1,224 2.0 Project Manager
Marie-Claude Gaudet Green 704 1.1 Administrative Assistant
David Rioux PPC 455 0.7 Maintenance Worker
Dji-Pé Frazer Other 251 0.4 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 96.6%
  • Anglophone 0.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 2.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46