Riding profile

Yukon

Federal riding — YT · Rural · territories

The question

Yukon: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Yukon, a rural riding in Yukon, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 51% vote share, against 33% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 3% francophone, 92% anglophone.

Sitting member

Brendan Hanley

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 51.2%
  • Conservative 32.6%
  • NDP 4.8%
  • Green 2.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereYukon 51.2%32.6%4.8%2.5%
Provincial averageYukon 51.2% 32.6% 4.8% 2.5%
National averageCanada 41.9% +9.3 34.8% −2.2 14.2% −9.4 2.1% +0.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
14.4 pts
Turnout
72.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Brendan Hanley Elected Liberal 12,009 53.1 Parliamentarian
Ryan Leef Conservative 8,719 38.5 Consultant
Katherine McCallum NDP 1,434 6.3 Artistic Executive Director
Gabrielle Dupont Green 474 2.1 Draftsperson

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 2.7%
  • Anglophone 91.6%
  • Non-francophone (other) 5.7%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46