Riding profile

Hexham

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north east

The question

Hexham: will Labour lose this seat to Conservative?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.2
P(close race)
13%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 31.3%
  • Labour 26.1%
  • Reform UK 20.7%
  • Green 10.0%
  • Lib Dems 5.8%
  • Other 5.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Labour Reform UK Green
HereHexham 31.3%26.1%20.7%10.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +12.0 21.8% +4.3 25.4% −4.7 10.8% −0.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Hexham, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 31% vote share, against 26% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Joe Morris

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
7.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Joe Morris Elected Labour 23,988 46.3 —
Guy Opperman Conservative 20,275 39.1 —
Nick Morphet Green 2,467 4.8 —
Nick Cott Lib Dems 2,376 4.6 —
Chris Whaley Other 1,511 2.9 —
William Clouston Other 1,211 2.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
94,195
Median age
50
Employment rate
71.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029