Riding profile

Hexham

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north east

The question

Hexham: will Labour lose this seat to Conservative?

Editorial read

Hexham, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 32% vote share, against 28% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Joe Morris

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 31.9%
  • Labour 27.7%
  • Reform UK 18.7%
  • Green 9.6%
  • Lib Dems 6.8%
  • Other 5.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Labour Reform UK Green
HereHexham 31.9%27.7%18.7%9.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 18.9% +13.0 21.7% +6.1 25.3% −6.7 11.8% −2.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
7.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Joe Morris Elected Labour 23,988 46.3
Guy Opperman Conservative 20,275 39.1
Nick Morphet Green 2,467 4.8
Nick Cott Lib Dems 2,376 4.6
Chris Whaley Other 1,511 2.9
William Clouston Other 1,211 2.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
94,195
Median age
50
Employment rate
71.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029