Riding profile

High Peak

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

High Peak: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.2
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 30.3%
  • Reform UK 27.1%
  • Conservative 24.6%
  • Green 11.3%
  • Lib Dems 5.3%
  • Other 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereHigh Peak 30.3%27.1%24.6%11.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +8.5 25.4% +1.8 19.3% +5.3 10.8% +0.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

High Peak, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 30% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Jon Pearce

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
16.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-12.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jon Pearce Elected Labour 22,533 45.8 —
Robert Largan Conservative 14,625 29.7 —
Catherine Cullen Reform UK 6,959 14.1 —
Joanna Collins Green 3,382 6.9 —
Peter Hirst Lib Dems 1,707 3.5 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
91,109
Median age
46
Employment rate
81.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029