Riding profile

High Peak

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

High Peak: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

High Peak, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 30% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Jon Pearce

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.3
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 29.8%
  • Reform UK 26.9%
  • Conservative 24.4%
  • Green 12.4%
  • Lib Dems 5.1%
  • Other 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereHigh Peak 29.8%26.9%24.4%12.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +8.2 25.3% +1.6 18.9% +5.5 11.8% +0.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
16.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jon Pearce Elected Labour 22,533 45.8
Robert Largan Conservative 14,625 29.7
Catherine Cullen Reform UK 6,959 14.1
Joanna Collins Green 3,382 6.9
Peter Hirst Lib Dems 1,707 3.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
91,109
Median age
46
Employment rate
81.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029