Riding profile
North Northumberland
The question
North Northumberland: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
North Northumberland, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 22% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
David Smith
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNorth Northumberland | 30.1% | 21.7% | 21.4% | 11.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +4.7 | 21.7% +0.1 | 18.9% +2.5 | 11.6% −0.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Smith Elected | Labour | 17,855 | 36.6 | — |
| Anne-Marie Trevelyan | Conservative | 12,788 | 26.2 | — |
| Katherine Hales | Reform UK | 7,688 | 15.7 | — |
| Natalie Younes | Lib Dems | 5,169 | 10.6 | — |
| Georgina Hill | Other | 3,220 | 6.6 | — |
| Jan Rosen | Green | 1,743 | 3.6 | — |
| Michael Joyce | Other | 288 | 0.6 | — |
| Andrew Martin | Other | 92 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029