North Northumberland
Westminster constituency · England · North East
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 59%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Northumberland | 29.2% | 24.6% | 22.8% | 8.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 26.5%+2.7 | 22.3%+2.3 | 20.0%+2.7 | 9.9%−1.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 92,775 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 52 |
| Employment rate | 72.3% |
Current member
David Smith · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 10.4 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 4.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Smith Elected | Labour | 17,855 | 36.6 |
| Anne-Marie Trevelyan | Conservative | 12,788 | 26.2 |
| Katherine Hales | Reform UK | 7,688 | 15.7 |
| Natalie Younes | Lib Dems | 5,169 | 10.6 |
| Georgina Hill | Other | 3,220 | 6.6 |
| Jan Rosen | Green | 1,743 | 3.6 |
| Michael Joyce | Other | 288 | 0.6 |
| Andrew Martin | Other | 92 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Blyth and Ashington Labour, toss-up
- Cramlington and Killingworth Labour, safe seat
- Tynemouth Labour, safe seat
- Newcastle upon Tyne North Labour, safe seat
- Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend Labour, safe seat
- Jarrow and Gateshead East Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated