Riding profile
North Northumberland
The question
North Northumberland: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNorth Northumberland | 31.7% | 22.1% | 19.5% | 10.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +6.3 | 19.3% +2.7 | 21.8% −2.4 | 11.4% −1.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
North Northumberland, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 22% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
David Smith
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Smith Elected | Labour | 17,855 | 36.6 | — |
| Anne-Marie Trevelyan | Conservative | 12,788 | 26.2 | — |
| Katherine Hales | Reform UK | 7,688 | 15.7 | — |
| Natalie Younes | Lib Dems | 5,169 | 10.6 | — |
| Georgina Hill | Other | 3,220 | 6.6 | — |
| Jan Rosen | Green | 1,743 | 3.6 | — |
| Michael Joyce | Other | 288 | 0.6 | — |
| Andrew Martin | Other | 92 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029