Riding profile
Scarborough and Whitby
The question
Scarborough and Whitby: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereScarborough and Whitby | 33.6% | 24.1% | 24.1% | 9.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +8.2 | 19.3% +4.8 | 21.8% +2.2 | 10.8% −1.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Scarborough and Whitby, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 34% vote share, against 24% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Alison Hume
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alison Hume Elected | Labour | 17,758 | 40.2 | — |
| Roberto Weeden-Sanz | Conservative | 12,350 | 27.9 | — |
| David Bowes | Reform UK | 9,657 | 21.8 | — |
| Robert Lockwood | Lib Dems | 1,899 | 4.3 | — |
| Annette Hudspeth | Green | 1,719 | 3.9 | — |
| Lee Derrick | Other | 477 | 1.1 | — |
| Asa Jones | Other | 285 | 0.6 | — |
| Thomas Foster | Other | 76 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Bridlington and The WoldsReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Kingston upon Hull North and CottinghamLabour Toss-upOpen →
- Kingston upon Hull EastReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Kingston upon Hull West and HaltempriceReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Beverley and HoldernessReform UK Toss-upOpen →
- Brigg and ImminghamReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029