Scarborough and Whitby
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 60% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.1 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 95%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarborough and Whitby | 31.3% | 30.6% | 23.6% | 7.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 26.5%+4.9 | 22.3%+8.4 | 20.0%+3.5 | 9.7%−2.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 97,474 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 49 |
| Employment rate | 77.0% |
Current member
Alison Hume · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 12.2 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 2.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alison Hume Elected | Labour | 17,758 | 40.2 |
| Roberto Weeden-Sanz | Conservative | 12,350 | 27.9 |
| David Bowes | Reform UK | 9,657 | 21.8 |
| Robert Lockwood | Lib Dems | 1,899 | 4.3 |
| Annette Hudspeth | Green | 1,719 | 3.9 |
| Lee Derrick | Other | 477 | 1.1 |
| Asa Jones | Other | 285 | 0.6 |
| Thomas Foster | Other | 76 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bridlington and The Wolds Reform UK, toss-up
- Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham Labour, safe seat
- Kingston upon Hull East Reform UK, toss-up
- Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice Labour, toss-up
- Beverley and Holderness Conservative, toss-up
- Brigg and Immingham Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated