Riding profile

Na h-Eileanan an Iar

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Na h-Eileanan an Iar: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Na h-Eileanan an Iar, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 25% vote share, against 23% for the SNP, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Torcuil Crichton

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

SNP

Toss-up

Probability
87%
Mean margin (pts)
0.7
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 24.7%
  • SNP 23.4%
  • Reform UK 16.4%
  • Other 14.3%
  • Conservative 9.1%
  • Lib Dems 7.5%
  • Green 4.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour SNP Reform UK Other
HereNa h-Eileanan an Iar 24.7%23.4%16.4%14.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +3.1 2.5% +20.8 25.3% −8.9 4.8% +9.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
28.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-27.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Torcuil Crichton Elected Labour 6,692 49.5
Susan Thomson SNP 2,856 21.1
Angus MacNeil Other 1,370 10.1
Tony Ridden Reform UK 697 5.2
Kenny Barker Conservative 647 4.8
Donald Boyd Other 496 3.7
Steven Welsh Other 388 2.9
Jamie Dobson Lib Dems 382 2.8

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
69.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029