Riding profile
Na h-Eileanan an Iar
The question
Na h-Eileanan an Iar: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?
Current forecast
SNP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.6
- P(close race)
- 1%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| SNP | Other | Labour | Reform UK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNa h-Eileanan an Iar | 27.5% | 20.9% | 18.2% | 17.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.8% +24.7 | 5.0% +15.9 | 21.8% −3.6 | 25.4% −8.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Na h-Eileanan an Iar, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 28% vote share, against 21% for another party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Torcuil Crichton
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torcuil Crichton Elected | Labour | 6,692 | 49.5 | — |
| Susan Thomson | SNP | 2,856 | 21.1 | — |
| Angus MacNeil | Other | 1,370 | 10.1 | — |
| Tony Ridden | Reform UK | 697 | 5.2 | — |
| Kenny Barker | Conservative | 647 | 4.8 | — |
| Donald Boyd | Other | 496 | 3.7 | — |
| Steven Welsh | Other | 388 | 2.9 | — |
| Jamie Dobson | Lib Dems | 382 | 2.8 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029