Riding profile

Na h-Eileanan an Iar

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Na h-Eileanan an Iar: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?

Current forecast

SNP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.6
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 27.5%
  • Other 20.9%
  • Labour 18.2%
  • Reform UK 17.1%
  • Conservative 7.8%
  • Green 4.3%
  • Lib Dems 3.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Other Labour Reform UK
HereNa h-Eileanan an Iar 27.5%20.9%18.2%17.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.8% +24.7 5.0% +15.9 21.8% −3.6 25.4% −8.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Na h-Eileanan an Iar, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 28% vote share, against 21% for another party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Torcuil Crichton

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
28.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-21.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Torcuil Crichton Elected Labour 6,692 49.5
Susan Thomson SNP 2,856 21.1
Angus MacNeil Other 1,370 10.1
Tony Ridden Reform UK 697 5.2
Kenny Barker Conservative 647 4.8
Donald Boyd Other 496 3.7
Steven Welsh Other 388 2.9
Jamie Dobson Lib Dems 382 2.8

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
69.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029