Riding profile

Cape Breton--Canso--Antigonish

Federal riding — NS · Rural · atlantic

The question

Cape Breton--Canso--Antigonish: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 53.2%
  • Conservative 34.9%
  • NDP 2.6%
  • Green 0.8%
  • PPC 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereCape Breton--Canso--Antigonish 53.2%34.9%2.6%0.8%
Provincial averageNova Scotia 59.7% −6.5 27.7% +7.2 4.2% −1.6 1.7% −0.9
National averageCanada 48.0% +5.2 32.1% +2.8 10.6% −8.0 2.7% −2.0

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Cape Breton--Canso--Antigonish, a rural riding in Nova Scotia, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 53% vote share, against 35% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 3% francophone, 94% anglophone.

Sitting member

Jaime Battiste

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
8.3 pts
Turnout
75.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.0 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jaime Battiste Elected Liberal 24,908 51.6 Parliamentarian
Allan MacMaster Conservative 20,870 43.2 Provincial Parliamentarian
Joanna Clark NDP 1,930 4.0 Teacher
Ryan Smyth PPC 333 0.7 Self-Employed
Rebecca Wall Independent 237 0.5 Media

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 2.8%
  • Anglophone 93.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 3.7%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46