Riding profile

Cape Breton--Canso--Antigonish

Federal riding — NS · Rural · atlantic

The question

Cape Breton--Canso--Antigonish: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Cape Breton--Canso--Antigonish, a rural riding in Nova Scotia, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 50% vote share, against 37% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 3% francophone, 94% anglophone.

Sitting member

Jaime Battiste

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 49.7%
  • Conservative 37.3%
  • NDP 4.2%
  • PPC 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereCape Breton--Canso--Antigonish 49.7%37.3%4.2%0.7%
Provincial averageNova Scotia 55.2% −5.5 29.9% +7.4 6.2% −2.0 0.9% −0.2
National averageCanada 41.9% +7.8 34.8% +2.5 14.2% −10.0 1.0% −0.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
8.3 pts
Turnout
75.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jaime Battiste Elected Liberal 24,908 51.6 Parliamentarian
Allan MacMaster Conservative 20,870 43.2 Provincial Parliamentarian
Joanna Clark NDP 1,930 4.0 Teacher
Ryan Smyth PPC 333 0.7 Self-Employed
Rebecca Wall Independent 237 0.5 Media

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 2.8%
  • Anglophone 93.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 3.7%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46