Riding profile

Halifax

Federal riding — NS · Urban · atlantic

The question

Halifax: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
53.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 67.9%
  • NDP 14.8%
  • Conservative 11.1%
  • Green 1.5%
  • PPC 0.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal NDP Conservative Green
HereHalifax 67.9%14.8%11.1%1.5%
Provincial averageNova Scotia 59.7% +8.1 4.2% +10.6 27.7% −16.6 1.7% −0.1
National averageCanada 48.0% +19.9 10.6% +4.2 32.1% −21.1 2.7% −1.2

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Halifax, an urban riding in Nova Scotia, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 44-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 68% vote share, against 15% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 90% anglophone.

Sitting member

Shannon Miedema

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
43.7 pts
Turnout
72.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
+9.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Shannon Miedema Elected Liberal 32,886 63.0 Environment and Climate Change
Mark Boudreau Conservative 9,939 19.1 Communications Professional
Lisa Roberts NDP 8,642 16.6 Parliamentarian
Amethyste Hamel-Gregory Green 422 0.8 Educational Assistant
Maricar Aliasut PPC 271 0.5 Property Manager

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.7%
  • Anglophone 90.3%
  • Non-francophone (other) 9.0%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46