Riding profile

Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River

Federal riding — SK · Rural · sk rural

The question

Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
58.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 69.0%
  • Conservative 10.6%
  • NDP 3.6%
  • Green 1.1%
  • PPC 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereDesnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River 69.0%10.6%3.6%1.1%
Provincial averageSaskatchewan 35.5% +33.5 49.1% −38.5 2.6% +1.0 1.5% −0.5
National averageCanada 48.0% +21.0 32.1% −21.5 10.6% −7.0 2.7% −1.7

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River, a rural riding in Saskatchewan, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 69% vote share, against 11% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 81% anglophone.

Sitting member

Buckley Belanger

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
39.2 pts
Turnout
36.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
+19.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Buckley Belanger Elected Liberal 5,876 65.1 Mayor
Jim Lemaigre Conservative 2,301 25.5 Senior Advisor
Doug Racine NDP 850 9.4 Lawyer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.1%
  • Anglophone 81.1%
  • Non-francophone (other) 18.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46