Riding profile

Nunavut

Federal riding — NU · Rural · territories

The question

Nunavut: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 42.2%
  • NDP 33.9%
  • Conservative 17.6%
  • Green 0.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal NDP Conservative Green
HereNunavut 42.2%33.9%17.6%0.8%
Provincial averageNunavut 42.2% 33.9% 17.6% 0.8%
National averageCanada 48.0% −5.8 10.6% +23.3 32.1% −14.5 2.7% −2.0

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Nunavut, a rural riding in Nunavut, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 42% vote share, against 34% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 52% anglophone.

Sitting member

Lori Idlout

Sits with Liberal

Elected as NDP · floor_crossingon2026-03-11

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
NDP
Margin
0.5 pts
Turnout
35.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.8 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Lori Idlout Elected NDP 2,853 37.3 Political Candidate
Kilikvak Kabloona Liberal 2,812 36.7 Nunavut Tunngavik Inc. Executive
James T. Arreak Conservative 1,992 26.0 Administrator

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 1.0%
  • Anglophone 51.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 47.1%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46